Corruption Does Not Explain Removal and Disappearance of Senior PLA Officers
The removal of Cheng Dongfang and the disappearance of Li Shangfu indicates that the current disciplinary campaign is not solely due to corruption.
Li’s disappearance and Cheng’s removal occurred after several high-level People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) officers – including the previous commander and commissar – disappeared from public and were arrested over corruption charges.
The Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu 李尚福 has not appeared in public since early September, with the minister cancelling a trip to Vietnam due to an unspecified health condition. However, several news articles stated Li’s disappearance is connected to a corruption investigation related to his time as head of the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) Equipment Development Department. The National People’s Congress’s National Standing Committee removed People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Rear Admiral Cheng Dongfang 程东方 as President of the Military Court around the same time as Li’s disappearance. Li’s disappearance and Cheng’s removal occurred after several high-level People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) officers – including the previous commander and commissar – disappeared from the public and were arrested over corruption charges. While the ongoing corruption investigation against various People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers has merit, it does not fully explain why certain officers are targeted but other officers are not.
Cheng’s Removal as President of PLA’s Military Court
The National Standing Committee convened on September 1st in Beijing where they voted to approve various laws and to appoint or remove people to various judicial positions. Among the individuals removed was Cheng who held the position of President of the Military Court for approximately eight months. While the PLA or the Standing Committee did not say why Cheng was removed, news articles and information about him can still be found if searched on the Chinese Internet. Furthermore, his official bio and his picture on the Justices organizational chart can still be located on the China Court Network website. Cheng is still listed as both a member of the CMC’s Central Committee for Discipline Inspection and a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) member in some of the articles and biographies.
Li’s Disappearance and (Alleged) Removal of Defense Minister
Li’s disappearance occurred at the same time as Cheng’s removal from President of the Military Court, with him missing several key meetings with foreign defense officials. However, the most significant meeting Li missed was the September 27th Politburo Standing Committee’s study session led Chinese leader Xi Jinping 习近平. While Li is one of five state councilors and his attendance at these study sessions is not mandatory, three other councilors attended the meeting. Furthermore, Li attended the last session held on June 30th, which makes his absence at the September session more meaningful. His lack of appearances came as several news articles stated that his disappearance is due to a corruption investigation and that he was relieved of his duties as defense minister. However, Li’s name and biography are still accessible on the Defense Ministry and State Council websites. Articles, pictures, and other biographies that mention Li as the defense minister still appear on the Chinese Internet if searched. Li is also still a CCP member or at least indicated in articles and biographies that mention him.
Connection to The Ongoing Investigation of the PLARF Officers
Cheng and Li are likely connected to the corruption investigation involving several PLARRF officers but for different reasons.
Cheng and Li are likely connected to the corruption investigation involving several PLARRF officers but for different reasons. Li connection to ongoing investigation largely stems from his time as head of the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) Equipment Development Department beginning in September 2017. In July 2023, the Equipment Development Department made a post about it launching an investigation related to regulatory and disciplinary violations that occurred during equipment procurement and tender processes. The notice then asked for individuals to come forward with any information or tips on any alleged violations that involved the organization since October 2017.
Cheng’s connection to the investigation likely stems from his time in various judicial or oversight positions starting from 2016 to December 2022. He was appointed as the Deputy President of the Military Court – the court’s second highest position – from 2016 to 2020 and was promoted to major general in 2017. Cheng was then appointed as the political commissar for the Sichuan Provincial Military Region from 2020 to April 2021. He then served as the Prosecutor-General of the PLA’s Military Procuratorate – the highest position and head of the organization – from April 2021 to December 2022. Cheng then began a member of the CMC’s Central Committee for Discipline Inspection in November 2022 and appointed as President of the Military Court in December 2022. The various positions Cheng held from 2016 to 2022 enabled him to have significant influence in criminal or party investigations in Sichuan province but also throughout China. Cheng likely received bribes from the PLARF officers currently under investigation but also other PLA officers such as Li.
Analysis: While Cheng’s and Li’s removal and disappearance means they are under investigation, it does not mean they are guilty of any corruption or related charges. Both individuals’ biographies and names are still listed on official Chinese government websites such as the China Court, the Defense Ministry, and the State Council pages. Furthermore, both Cheng and Li still maintain other positions – Cheng is still a first-class justice while Li still retains his state councilor position – higher than the positions they would lose. Both individuals’ names can also produce results – such as news articles, videos, and biographies – when searched on the Chinese Internet. The lack of any removal of their names from the Chinese Internet and them maintaining other positions means that the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection’s investigation is still ongoing.
The investigation against Li likely stems from something more than simple corruption to include a possible power struggle between him and other elements within the PLA or CCP. The main indicator of this is how PLAA General Zhang Youxia 张又侠 is currently not under investigation given that Li succeeded him as head of the Equipment Development Department in 2017. Furthermore, if Li was involved in corruption, then it would also include when he headed China’s Manned Space Program – also known as Project 921 九二一工程 – from 2017 to 2022. Corruption within the PLA was extremely common before XI came into power and began his anti-corruption campaign in 2012. However, corruption within the PLA did not go away after the campaign and subsequent purges but became more opaque and harder to find. For example, PLA officers who show loyalty to Xi or are somehow connected to his power base will find themselves immune from the campaigns and purges with exceptions. These exceptions include becoming a sacrifice to save other officers that Xi has a closer relationship with, or he would have a need to keep them within the PLA. Xi likely sacrificed Li to safeguard more important individuals such as Zhang who is a combat veteran or done to show that Xi is serious about going after corrupt PLA officers.
However, another possible explanation is that Li was implicated in the investigation because he was a technocrat and a military princeling. Li is highly educated like his counterparts in the PLARF and would have a similar understanding of the various missile systems the PLARF can use against the United States or Taiwan. Li also would have a better understanding of these systems due to him being an aerospace engineer and spending most of his career at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan province. While the defense minister does not wield any official power within the PLA, the CCP, or Chinese government, Li likely had immense influence behind the scenes due to his power base. Li’s power base would include the same PLARF officers currently under investigation and other PLA officers Li interacted with or knew during his career such as Cheng. Cheng’s removal was likely due to him taking bribes or taking part in other forms of corruption from 2016 to 2022 but more importantly being implicated as part of Li’s power base.